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YESTERDAY'S PLAYS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 24, 2020
Louisville vs Florida State
Louisville
+3 -110 at Bovada
Lost
$110.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Louisville +3 over Florida State, Monday at 7 PM ET

These two met in early January and FSU pulled the road upset @ Louisville 78-65.  The Seminoles shot lights out in that game hitting over 50% of their shots overall and 60% of their attempts inside the arc in route to a 1.20 points per possession performance.  That was against a Louisville defense that allowed just 0.92 PPP on the season which ranks them 29th nationally.  Since that outing the Cards have played 14 games holding 11 of those teams to 1.00 PPP or less.  We expect the U of L defense to play with a chip on their shoulder tonight in this revenge match up.  Offensively a very good Louisville team (11th nationally in offensive efficiency) shot only 39% in that first meeting.  We expect the Cards to be much better on both ends tonight.  FSU is very good but they’ve had a number of games that have gone to the wire with 8 of their last 11 games decided by 6 points or less.  The Noles are also very good on defense however if they have one weakness, it’s defending the arc where they rank 9th in the ACC allowing opponents to shoot 33% in league play.  That could be a problem for them tonight facing a Louisville offense that ranks 7th nationally in 3-point percentage and they are hitting almost 41% from deep in ACC play (1st in the conference).  FSU also thrives on rebounding often dominating teams on the boards.  That won’t happen tonight vs a Louisville team that is a very good rebounding team and actually won the battle of the glass in the first meeting 37 to 32 including 19 offensive rebounds (47% of their misses).  The Cardinals had back to back losses earlier this month as they hit their bottom so to speak.  They have since regained their mojo with two blowout wins over Syracuse (by 24) and UNC (by 17).  They are 6-2 in ACC road games this year including a win @ Duke.  This is just the 3rd time Louisville has been an underdog this season with the other 2 coming @ Duke (Cards won the game) and @ Kentucky (Cards lost in OT).  The road team has won 3 of last 4 with only home team win during that run coming in OT and we’ll call for Louisville to pick up a road win tonight. 

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 24, 2020
Suns vs Jazz
Jazz
-8 -106 at BMaker
Lost
$106.0
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA play on: Utah Jazz -8 over Phoenix Suns, 9PM ET

We like the situation as the Jazz are off a pair of bad losses to other Western Conference teams (Spurs, Rockets) following the break which will have them focused here. Phoenix has been a team we played on quite a bit early in the season and were rewarded with profits, but they’ve been fading with a 4-11 ATS record their last fifteen games. The Suns are 18th in offensive and defensive efficiency ratings on the road and an average loss margin of minus -3.4PPG (17th). Utah will lock down the Suns defensively with the 4th best defensive efficiency unit in the NBA when they are at home allowing just 1.052 points per possession. Utah is 20-7 SU in Salt Lake City with an average winning margin of +6.2PPG. Granted, it was early in the season, but the Jazz were favored by -4.5-points in Phoenix this season and now laying a few more points at home? Bet the value and take Utah minus the points.

PICKS IN PROGRESS
Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 25, 2020
Alabama vs Mississippi State
Mississippi State
-4 -109 at GTBets
Play Type: Premium

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Mississippi State -4 over Alabama, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

We faded Bama on Saturday @ Ole Miss and the Tide played possibly their best game of the season.  They routed Mississippi by 25 points, shot 55% for the game (9% above their average), 43% from beyond the arc (7% above their average) and scored a ridiculous 103 points (20 points above their average).  It was just one of those games for Bama where everything went right.  We love looking to go against those teams in their following game as they tend to come back to earth, especially if that game is on the road.  We’re also getting a solid Mississippi State team (17-10 overall / 8-6 in the SEC) coming off a road loss as a favorite @ Texas A&M.  The Bulldogs are a definite bubble team and they travel for 2 more road games @ Mizzou and @ South Carolina after this game making this a very important home game.  MSU is 6-1 at home in SEC play with their only loss coming vs Auburn in the conference opener back in early January.  Their average margin of victory at home is +12 and they shoot nearly 50% from the field here.  The Bulldogs are also the #1 FT shooting team in the SEC (conference play) hitting 79% so if they need to hold a lead late, chances are they will.  They should also dominate the boards in this game as they are one of the best rebounding teams in the conference (#2 offensive rebounding & #2 defensive rebounding) and they face a Crimson Tide team that is one of the worst on the boards.  Bama won the first meeting at home behind 49% shooting (38% for MSU) and +11 margin at the FT line.  That changes tonight as we fully expect Mississippi State to play some extra fire with Alabama potentially coming in a bit full of themselves off their big road win Saturday.  Lay the number.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 25, 2020
Ole Miss vs Auburn
Ole Miss
+8½ -109 at GTBets
Lost
$109.0
Play Type: Premium

ASAwins 8* PLAY ON Ole Miss +8.5 over Auburn, Tuesday at 7 PM ET

We were on Ole Miss on Saturday at home vs Bama and they laid a complete egg losing 103-78 as a 2.5 point favorite.  The Rebels had been playing very well leading into that contest and we think they bounce back and play well here after that embarrassing performance at home.  They’ll have some definite motivation here as they blew a 17 point halftime lead at home vs Auburn just a few weeks ago and lost in double OT 83-82.  Ole Miss matches up very well with the Tigers having beaten them twice last year and taking them to double OT this season.  The Rebels have also had great success @ Auburn winning 5 of the last 6 meetings.  They have one of the top players in the conference in guard Tyree (leads the SEC in scoring at 21 PPG) and his backcourt mate Shuler is a veteran as well.  We really like the Rebels veteran guards on the road vs an overvalued Auburn team.  Four of the Tigers last six wins have come in OT and they made a monumental comeback here on Saturday erasing a 17 point second half deficit vs Tennessee to pick up the 7 point win.  One of their top players, Isaac Okoro, was out with an injury and is questionable at best for this one.  Even if he does play we expect Auburn to limit him as he has missed 3 straight games not having played since February 12th.  Another key here is Auburn has Kentucky on deck so they want to make sure he’s ready for that game (Tigers lookahead spot here).  Auburn is a poor shooting team (13th in the SEC in eFG% and they are not a great FT shooting team at 68% if they are trying to close the game out late.  We like Ole Miss to give Auburn all they can handle here.  The Tigers have rarely won big in conference play this season – in their last 12 games only 1 win by more than 9 points.  Another Auburn game goes to the wire as we take Mississippi to cover.

Matchup Selection W/L
NCAA-B  |  Feb 25, 2020
Texas Tech vs Oklahoma
Oklahoma
+2½ -110 at Mirage
Play Type: Top Premium

ASAwins 10* PLAY ON Oklahoma +2.5 over Texas Tech, Tuesday at 9 PM ET

This is simply a must win for Oklahoma’s NCAA tourney hopes.  Right now the Sooners are sitting barely in the tourney or barely out of the tourney depending on which bracket expert you follow.  After losing 3 straight games, they can’t afford a loss here with 2 of their last 3 games on the road.  This game isn’t a true home game for them as it will be played in Oklahoma City although the crowd will be all OU.  They’ve also played at this venue once already this season beating Mississippi State in late January.  Oklahoma is coming off 3 straight losses and because of that we’re getting some value in this game.  Let’s keep in mind their 3 losses weren’t necessarily unexpected as they were beaten @ Kansas, lost at home to Baylor, and then lost over the weekend @ Oklahoma State.  The first two setbacks were absolutely expected as they were facing to 2 best teams in the Big 12 and 2 top 5 nationally ranked teams.  We weren’t surprised they lost @ arch rival OSU over the weekend as those first 2 games took a lot out of this team while the Cowboys were playing their Super Bowl, so to speak, at home.  We expect a huge performance after getting embarrassed on Saturday.  The Sooners have lost only 2 home games (including games at OKC) this year and those were vs Kansas & Baylor.  Now they face a young Texas Tech team (3 freshman in their top 7 players) that is coming off a 30-point blowout win @ Iowa State.  The Red Raiders come in fat and happy so to speak while OU Is backed into a corner.  These two met just on February 4th and Tech was an 8.5 point favorite at home.  That tells us this line should be pick-em or OU favored by 1 so the value is there.  In that first meeting Texas Tech won 69-61 and while the Sooners attempted 10 more FG’s, the Raiders shot lights out hitting over 50% for the game and from beyond the arc.  Despite the red hot shooting from Tech, OU led at half and trailed by just 3 with 1:00 minute remaining in the game.  Now they get the Red Raiders away from home where they are just 3-4 SU in conference play.  We like OU to get this much needed win tonight.

Matchup Selection W/L
NBA  |  Feb 25, 2020
Bucks vs Raptors
UNDER 231½ -110
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA’s play on: UNDER 231.5 Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors, 7:30PM ET

This the second meeting of the season for these two teams who met last year in the Eastern Conference Finals. We expect a playoff type atmosphere for this contest north of the border between two teams that feel they can win it all this season. The Raptors last thirteen games have been against a very soft schedule with only three of those games coming against a team with a winning record, and all three were against the Pacers. The last time the Raptors faced a team of the Bucks caliber was back on January 22nd against the 76ers and that game ended with 202 total points. The Bucks played an OT thriller last night against the Wizards but because of their depth, fatigue won’t be an issue tonight. The Bucks games have averaged 227 total points per game when Milwaukee is not rested. When these same two teams squared off earlier this season the posted total on the game was 227 and they combined for 220 total points. In fact, nine of the last ten meeting has resulted in 231 or less total points. These two teams are the two best defensive efficiency teams in the NBA as the Bucks allow just 1.021 points per possession and the Raptors give up just 1.042PPP. This game shapes up to be a very low scoring affair with a playoff like intensity. Bet UNDER!

Matchup Selection W/L
NHL  |  Feb 25, 2020
Senators vs Predators
Predators
-1½ -124 at pinnacle
Play Type: Top Premium

ASA NHL TOP PLAY 10* ON Nashville Predators Puck Line (-1.5 goals) over Ottawa Senators, Tuesday at 8:05 PM ET

This is a fantastic situation.  Ottawa is playing the 2nd night of a back to back.  The Senators were involved in the only game on the NHL schedule last night as they lost at Columbus in OT.  It was another deflating loss for Ottawa and also their 20th defeat in their last 25 games!  While the Senators are wrapping up a miserable season, the Predators are in the middle of a sprint to the finish over the last six weeks of the regular season as they are very much alive in the playoff race.  Nashville has a big scheduling edge here as they were off both Sunday and Monday.  The Predators also have revenge here as they lost at Ottawa 5-4 in December.  With Marcus Hogberg having gotten the call against the Blue Jackets last night, Craig Anderson is expected to get the start in goal for the Senators tonight.  Anderson is 4-8-1 with a 3.57 GAA in his 15 road games (14 starts) this season.  The Predators will have a huge edge in goal whether they use Pekka Rinne or Juuse Saros.  Both have been great recently and that is why Nashville has allowed only 2.5 goals per game in its last 11 games.  The Predators have averaged nearly 4 goals per game in their last 8 victories.  The Senators have averaged about 1.5 goals per game in their last 16 losses.  Based on the huge edges here it comes as no surprise that the Predators are a -330 favorite on the money line.  Where the value lies in a situation like this is the puck line and with Ottawa likely to be held to just 1 or 2 goals and the Predators likely to score 4 or more goals (see recent averages noted above), we have no hesitation in investing in the puck line (-1.5 goals) in this one.  Per our computer math model, this one is forecast to be a revenging home blowout Tuesday.  Laying the 1.5 goals with Nashville is the value play here.

SERVICE BIO

The owners of American Sports Analysts (ASAwins), Lee Kostroski & Mike Merlet, have a combined 50+ years in the sports betting industry. Both started with Doc’s Enterprises, Lee in the late 80’s and Mike in the early 90’s. After learning the handicapping trade from one of the oldest in the business, they started ASA Inc in 1997 and have been going strong ever since. They have been known throughout the industry for their success on BIG GAMES including their 10* Midwest Game of the Year. ASA is located in Madison, WI and a foundation of their handicapping prowess revolves around the heart of the country – especially the Big Ten.

ASAwins has appeared on numerous radio shows throughout the country as special expert football guests including Tampa, New Orleans, Madison, Milwaukee, Memphis, Las Vegas, and Denver just to name a few. They were also featured on the ESPN website with gaming writer Chad Millman during the 2011 season.

ASAwins handicapping methods have evolved through years of with hard work and research being the anchor of their success. Rather than implementing one specific strategy as many handicappers do, they intertwine many different philosophies when it comes to making football, basketball, hockey, and baseball selections. They utilize their massive database that goes back over 30 years and can give them in depth information on any situation you can think of when it comes to handicapping. That’s not where they stop, however. They also research stats and film each week to evaluate the upcoming match ups on the field along with speaking with their personal contacts throughout the country (especially in the Midwest). On top of that, they analyze each point spread (and their movements) comparing them with their own power ratings to find where an edge might be found. Lastly, their predictive analytics or math models predict the outcomes of games based solely on numbers and statistics that aren’t swayed by the human element. So, as you can see, just because a game may fall into a successful system or the scheduling looks good to go against or with a certain team, that doesn’t mean that ASA automatically uses it as a selection. It must go through their in-depth process with all things considered before they give it the ASA stamp of approval. Looking at games from all these angles gives ASA the best of all worlds when it comes to handicapping. Their handicapping theories have proven successful over the years which has them as one of the more tenured experts in the industry.

Lee & Mike at ASAwins have stood the test of time in an industry that makes it very tough to do so. Their 50+ years of experience will give you the WINNING EDGE you need. Sports wagering is an investment and it’s time you invest in the known commodity of ASAwins!